Hurricane Data

105

AXNT20 KNHC 070339

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0305 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N,

moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is

present near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving

westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving

westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed

near this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N,

moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated

strong occurring south of 13N and west of 79W in the SW Caribbean.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W.

The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 07N43W and then from 07N46W to

near 05N53W. No significant convection is evident near the monsoon

trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE

Gulf waters, while some storms are approaching the Florida Gulf

coast north of Tampa. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, storms

that developed over the western Yucatan peninsula are moving

westward at 25-30 kt. Mariners in the area are urged to use

caution. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the

central Gulf and the thermal trough over western Yucatan support

moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the eastern

half of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and

slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin

through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. The

pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds and

slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh

with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the

evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the

peninsula each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the

islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong

easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central and eastern

Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and

highest seas are found off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail

elsewhere. An upper level low in the central Caribbean and diurnal

heating combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms

across Cuba and nearby waters. A few showers and isolated

thunderstorms also dot the NE and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along

about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the

ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong

trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The

gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader

area of strong winds, and locally near- gale force, with rough

seas, Mon through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds

and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A mid-level trough over the western Atlantic and ample deep

atmospheric moisture and instability support numerous showers and

thunderstorms in the SW North Atlantic, especially north of 23N

and west of 55W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are

noted north of 25N and between 50W and 70W.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the

influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N52W.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are

present south of 24N and between 30W and 70W. A stronger pressure

gradient in the far eastern Atlantic sustains fresh to strong

northerly winds and rough seas north of 20N and east of 25W.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are

prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from

the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida

will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early

next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient

across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds

and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front approaching the

northern waters will stall near 31N through mid week before

lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active

across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue.

$$

Delgado