Hurricane Data

000

AXNT20 KNHC 302301

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Northern Gulf of America (AL97):

A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America

about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that

this system has become better organized since yesterday.

Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-

northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical

storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or

southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests

along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the

progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy

rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or

southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days.

this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation

through 48 hours, and also through 7 days.

Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly):

A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is

producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico

eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward

Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that

there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and

redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the

wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The

system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to

portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,

and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may

become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week

as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. Showers

and thunderstorms are currently affecting the Lesser Antilles

mainly north of St. Lucia, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin

Islands and Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts and the location

of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local

topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest

rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific

rainfall forecasts for your local area.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at

www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is added to 1800 UTC analysis/surface map along

20W south of 20N. Some shower activity is near the wave axis.

Another tropical is along 42W, south of 21N, moving westward at

around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where

the wave meets the ITCZ.

A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is

along 66W. Please, see the Special Features section for more

details.

Another tropical is over the central Caribbean with axis near

80W, south of 20N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears

to enhance convection over the SW Caribbean, especially over

western Panama. A few showers are near the northern end of the

wave axis over the Cayman Islands.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at

20N16W southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ begins there and

extends to 10N39W, then resumes at 09N43W and continues westward

to NE Venezuela at 08.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is

occurring from 04N to 10N between 23W and 60W.

GULF OF AMERICA

A 1014 mb low pressure (AL97) about 100 NM south of the mouth of

the Mississippi River is producing scattered thunderstorms in

the north-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms,

peak winds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Scatterometer data

indicate the cyclonic circulation of this system, and a closed

low is analyzed. Elsewhere, winds across the Gulf are moderate or

weaker with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, additional development is possible as the above

mentioned low moves slowly west-northwest and a short-lived

tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the

system reaches the Upper Texas or SW Louisiana coasts Tue or Tue

night. Regardless of development, mariners over the north-central

and northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms with gusty

winds and locally higher seas early this week. Elsewhere, weak

high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining

moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to

fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings

due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula

each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall

information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across

the NE Caribbean.

The pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area

along with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong

trades over the south-central Caribbean with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

Additionally, rough seas in NE swell are impacting the Atlantic

passages of the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or

weaker with seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical

wave is producing numerous thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough

seas over the far NE Caribbean, northern Leeward Islands, Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Atlantic waters. This wave

will move westward toward Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then

affect eastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the

pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low

will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades

and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern

Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the

waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information

about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across

the NE Caribbean.

The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025

mb center at 34N53W and a second 1025 mb center at 34N32W. The

pressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and

monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades

with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are

also noted north of 25N W of 60W, including parts of the Bahamas,

and most of the Florida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft

continues to support this convective activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly

will move westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then

eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to waters S of

23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a

deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W

through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate,

supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

Winds will pulse to locally strong off Hispaniola tonight.

$$

GR