Hurricane Data

000

AXNT20 KNHC 150614

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0530 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is analyzed near 46W, from 11N to 18N, moving

westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the

wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles near 59W, from 10N to

19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection

is from 10N to 13N between 54W and 58W.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and

extends SW to 07N25W to 05N34W where it transitions to the ITCZ

which continues to 06N46W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate to strong

convection is from 04N to 10N between 26W and 36W. Scattered

moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 12W and

25W.

GULF OF AMERICA

A high pressure ridge extends from a 1018 mb high center that is

over central Alabama southward to about 22N. Recent scatterometer

data along with buoy observations reveal moderate to locally

fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast

winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface

trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to locally near

gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate.

Locally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with

the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface

trough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida

and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through

Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to

moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest

Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay

of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to

rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the

west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by

Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the

strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the

SW Gulf trough Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA

An upper-level low over the Yucatan and NW Caribbean are

supporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin,

except for scattered heavy showers and tstms lying behind a

surface trough that extends from 12N81W to 20N81W. Recent

scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the

vicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are

likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting

moderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate

or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E

basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW

Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the

Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore

Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming

weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture

associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean

will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers

and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and rough seas

will be associated with this convective activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support

mainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over

the west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Locally fresh

easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise,

the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the

Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh

northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW

Africa and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary

Islands. A 1013 mb low is located near 21N38W, which is generating

scattered showers from 20N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to

fresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to

approximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure E of the Bahamas is

forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE

waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger

cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late

Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to

South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and

rough seas will follow the front.

$$

Ramos