Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center ranks severe thunderstorm risk on a five-level scale: Marginal (level 1, isolated severe storms), Slight (level 2, scattered severe storms), Enhanced (level 3, numerous severe storms), Moderate (level 4, widespread and intense severe storms likely), and High (level 5, a severe weather outbreak expected). A separate General Thunderstorm area marks non-severe storm coverage.

A watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather over a large area and covers several hours — it is the time to prepare. A warning means severe weather is occurring or imminent in a specific, much smaller area, usually a polygon lasting under an hour, and it is the time to take shelter immediately. Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center; warnings are issued by local National Weather Service offices.

The Day 1 convective outlook is issued five times daily at roughly 06Z, 13Z, 1630Z, 20Z, and 01Z. The Day 2 outlook is issued twice daily, the Day 3 outlook once daily, and the Day 4–8 extended outlook once daily around 09Z. Outlook maps on this page pull the current issuance directly from the Storm Prediction Center.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) is a Weather Prediction Center product showing where rainfall is likely to exceed flash flood guidance. It uses Marginal, Slight, Moderate, and High risk categories for Days 1 through 3 and is the primary national flash flooding outlook product.